The seemingly infinite patience of President Donald Trump with Russian President Vladimir Putin can, in fact, have limits.
“Something has happened to him. He has gone absolutely crazy!” Trump wrote on his real social platform this week, citing the recent massive air attacks on Ukrainian cities and Putin’s desire to conquer “all Ukraine, not just a part.”
Trump also a vague opportunity against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (“everything outside his mouth causes problems”), and one could point out that Russia has civil goals in Ukraine policy.
Trump followed by the reporters of the counting that he is consulting to impose new sanctions on Russia and published: “If you hinder me, many really bad things would have happened to Alreamy to Russia,” but told journalists in The White Hot Semseday Thaty.
Therefore, it is not as if Trump has had a complete and saved heart change during the night. But consider that, at the end of February, Trump was publicly for Zenskyy in the Oval office, blaming Ukraine for beginning the war and stopping all US assistance to the Ukrainian war effort. According to that standard, Trump’s new tone remains one of several developments that add to a change of welcome rhythm for kyiv.
Even if new measures are not taken to support Ukraine or punish Russia, and even if the United States “moves” out of efforts to negotiate a high fire, since vice president JD Vance recently threatened, events since February still equals a diplomatic change of fortune for Ukraine, and probably as good as a result as Kyiv could expect reason.
What has changed: sanctions, intelligence and (so far) weapons
For Ukraine, where cities are still recovering from some of the largest air attacks since the beginning of the war, and where the most necessary air defense ammunition supplies are being executed dangerously, obviously there is no reason for the celebration. Hanna Shelest, a kyiv headquarters -based defense analyst at the Center for the analysis of European policies, told Vox that, despite Trump’s changing tone in Putin, her attacks that incorporate Zenskyy (it is not clear exactly what Rhat Stigigled Stiggered Trumps Stiggers Stigred Sitence.
Trump, despite all his current frustration, clearly still sees the conflict in a much more comprehensive way with the interests of Russia than Joe Biden or many members of his own party. But in terms of real material support, it has not changed much from the Trump Toke office.
Due to the time that these contracts are negotiated and fulfilled, the weapons that were ordered in 2022 are only delivered to the bee now.
He has often suggested that he would be willing to raise the sanctions to Russia as part of a high fire agreement, but has not done so, and in fact, he has signed executive orders that extend the sanctions that Biden imposed. Many of these sanctions could not rise without the Congress approach. As said Secretary of State Marco Rubio, “when Vladimir Putin woke up this morning, he had the same set of sanctions on him that he has always had since the beginning of this conflict.”
In addition to a rhythm of a week after the contentious meeting of the Oval office, the shipments of US weapons to Ukraine have continued. In fact, the weapons deliveries rate actually increased in the first weeks of the Trump administration because the movements that the Biden team made to hurry before leaving the position.
Vital shared intelligence for Ukraine orientation systems has also continued, as it has done, despite Elon Musk’s threats, Ukrainian army access to the Spacex Starlink satellite network.
The Congress has assigned two types of funds for help to Ukraine: the first pays for weapons that will be transferred to Ukraine for US military stocks. That help has been almost exhausted, experts say. The second provides funds for Ukraine to verify their own weapons to US manufacturers. Due to the time that these contracts are negotiated and fulfilled, the weapons that were ordered in 2022 are only delivered to the bee now. The latest elements of the contracts signed in 2024 may not be delivered until 2028.
The result, as Mark Cancan says, main advisor to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, is that “the general military aid is relatively high and will remain there for quite some time.”
It is very unlikely that this White House and this congress assign new funds for help to Ukraine, but maybe others could fill the void. According to reports, European governments are heating the idea of buying weapons from US manufacturers. Until now, thesis governments have preferred to buy in their own companies, but there are several systems such as Patriot Air Air Defense missiles of all important, which only the United States can provide.
The Ukraine defense industry is also more self -sufficient than it used to be. Drones that are now inflicting most victims in the first line in Ukraine are increasingly produced in the country by the flourishing autonomous weapons industry of the country.
It is possible that Ukraine can benefit a bit of an American approach more by hand. For All That The Biden Team Made It Wouled Go Ukraine’s War Effort for Long As It Takes, Ukrainian Officials Subtimes Bristled Under What they Cojo Sucoration Lush Lush Lush Lush Tail Lush Tail Lush Tail Lush Tail Lick Tail Lush Tush Tail Lush Tail Lush Tail Lush Tush Lush Lush Lush Little Russian territory.
But according to an announcement by German Failedrich Merz this week, the allies, including the United States, have agreed to raise the restrictions of weapons that are directed to Ukraine, which allows Ukrainians more freedom to attack within Russia.
What has changed: minerals and direct talks
The two main changes in American policy that have been carried out under Trump have been the Uskraine mineral agreement and direct negotiations with Russia. Both have proven to be less disastrous for Ukraine than it appeared.
According to the reports, the original version of the Mineral Agreement submitted to Ukraine required that the country deliver around hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue for the mining of its critical minerals as a refund of past military aid. The possible Ukraine Agreement signed that requirement and, although it does not include the explicit security guarantees that Ukraine expected, at least it gives this administration transactionally a financial participation in the future of Ukraine.
As for the high fire conversations, Trump annulled the principles of two states of the Biden approach: that Russia should be isolated diplomatic and that they would not be negotiations “about Ukraine without Ukraine.” But ultimately, the political position of Ukraine may have been strengthened by the process. Putin has rejected the fire of 30 days after Ukraine agreed, did not show up in the conversations in Istanbul, where Zenskyy had proposed to gather face to face, and has rejected Trump’s proposal to have conversations mediated by the container.
It is much more difficult even for the most skeptics to argue, as Trump has previously done, that the war only continues due to Zensky’s lack of will to reach an agreement. Even Trump has been forced to simply ask that Putin is simply “hitting me”, minimally involving the diplomatic process without abandoning his ultimate goal of subjugating all Ukraine, not only the regions in dispute, by force.
How long can the status quo maintain?
Trump has clearly gone from the notion that the war can end in 24 hours and seems to be losing interest in peace conversations completely. Or how to catch him, “we are more than open to get away.”
Much depends on what exactly “get away.” If the end of arms shipments, intelligence exchange and sanctions to Russia, that would be disastrous for Ukraine, thought not necessarily fatal.
“It is not as if we had plugged tomorrow, that the Ukrainians would cease to exist immediately, which I think was the assumption of the administration when they entered,” said Jeffrey Edmonds, a former White House advisor and the Pentagon of Russia. “They thought they had much more influence than on Ukraine and Russia.” (A spokesman for the White House National Security Council did not respond to Vox’s request).
If Trump simply keeps the status quo, he maintains the sanctions that are already in place, he continues to send the weapons that have already been paid, which could be enough for the Ukrainians to have the line in the coming months.
It is true that Russian troops continue to move slowly, but the progress rate is already slowing down this year, and does not lose the boxes of victims per square kilometer. According to a recent estimate, Russia would take 80 years to conquer the entire territory of Ukraine at the current rate.
Ukraine’s greatest concern can be to recruit enough troops for men in the front, thought is that efforts have improved a bit, American commanders say, and the low moral between troops and civilians as war crawls endlessly in Sightt.
Russia has labor problems, as well as growing signs of economic anguish as it continues to pour money into Ukraine. Trump tariffs have had the unexpected side effect of cutting the oil income of the Russian state.
Before Trump Tok’s office, Ukrainian leaders expressed a cautious optimism that, despite Trump’s affection for Putin and skepticism about the value of supporting Ukraine, could appeal nature and turn his. That was too optimistic: Trump seems unlikely to have been a strong sponsor or Ukraine. But at least it seems less likely to be a strong sponsor or Russia. At the moment, they can be the best you can expect.
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