The fight on the call and beautiful bill of President Donald Trump is becoming ugly.
After passing the camera controlled by the Republican party, the bill moved to the Senate, where Republicans face a bitter division on how to balance their competitive priorities.
They want to extend and expand Trump’s tax cuts, which disproportionate benefit the rich and have a high price, as well as reinforce the application of immigration application and defense expense. However, some are reluctant to do so while they increase national debt by almost $ 2.6 billion and reduce the benefits of Medicaid.
Republicans want to approve the bill before July 4 through a complex process known as budget conciliation, which requires only 51 votes to approve. There are 53 Republicans in the Senate, but it is not clear if they can solve their disagreements on time.
Some Republican senators, including Ron Johnson (R-Wi.) And Rand Paul (R-Ky), have criticized the current version of the bill as Irrazonable. Trump Megadonor (and newly jury enemy) Elon Musk has asked legislators to rework legislation, which is “unpleasant abomination.”
“Call your senator, call your congressman, in bankruptcy to the United States is not right! Kill the bill,” Musk said in a position in X Wednesday.
The president of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, has said that Musk is “completely wrong” about the bill and that it is not enough time to return to the drawing table.
So what is exactly in the bill, and what does it mean: for the deficit and for the Americans? We break it up, in graphics.
The bill would cause the American deficit to shoot
This bill of expenses is expectation and, unless really drastic cuts to almost all social programs (and perhaps even with cuts), it is not clear that the government can approve it without increasing national debt.
The version approved by the Chamber would raise the deficit for billions of dollars during the next decade, without taking into account the possible effects that the bill would have on the economy of the United States. This expense is concentrated between 2025 and 2028, coinciding with the next presidential elections.
The Republicans once campaigned against increasing national debt during the administration of Obama, the frame is a national security threat and a burden for future generations. But it is no longer the cry of rally that once was.
There are reasons to worry about a growing national debt. As my colleague Dylan Matthews writes, the bond market is already bristling before the perspective of such a significant increase in the deficit, a warning of possible economic recession or even even more of the debt debt with greater law of service costs.
Tax cuts are what makes the invoice so spend
Trump wants to take advantage of the tax cuts that approved his first mandate. They are scheduled to expire this year if Congress does not act, and the bill of expenses would keep them in place. It would also add some new ones, including the disposal of taxes on tips.
That will cost to the United States government. An breakdown of the budgetary effects of the bill published by the Congress Budget Office (CBO) shows that the Committee from the House and Half, which presides over the fiscal policy, would be allowed to contribute with $ 3.8 billion additional to the deficit. That is at least in part because tax revenues would be lower under the invoice.
Meanwhile, armed services and national security communications are the only ones in which Trump seeks significantly increased in spending such as Heeks to fulfill in his campaign promise of “mass deportations” with the assistance of the military.
Any expense of expenses in other areas is not enough to counteract the resulting increase in the American deficit. That would probably require that Republicans reduce public benefits even more than they already have in this bill. Although they have not gone so far as to touch the benefits of Social Security, the medical and insurance plans have pursued under the low -price health care law.
Millions could run out of insurance under the expense bill
Republicans have also included measures in the bill that would largely increase the number of people without health insurance, according to a CBO estimate.
A provision allows the tax credits for improved premiums for Aca Lapas insurance plans, which would increase the premiums for millions of Americans who trust them.
After the Covid-19 stimulus bill was signed in 2021, these tax credits became AV by any person whose premiums were about 8.5 percent of their income from their homes, not only people who obtained up to 400 percent of the federal poverty line. Registration in ACA plans subsequently doubled to 24.3 million people between 2020 and 2025.
The Chamber’s invoice would allow these extended tax credits to expire this year, expelling people from ACA markets with higher costs.
Another provision would be a significant registration in Medicaid by creating a work requirement for people under 64 who do not have a deep under 7 years.
While it does not directly benefit from the benefits of Medicaid, the work requirement would create additional barriers for access to Medicaid, including administrative obstacles that could result in less registration even among the people who work. (It is worth noting that most Medicaid receptors without disabled already work).
Some states have already implemented similar work requirements with disappointing results. Arkansas and Georgia saw Medicaid inscriptions to the chopped from then on, and a court of Arkansas’s requirements based on the fact that they violated the Federal Law of Medicaid.
The expense bill disproportionately benefits the rich
According to the tax cuts approved by the duration of Trump in his first mandate, the upper 1 percent of the winners saw the most significant profits, both in amounts in dollars and in a percentage of their entrants.
This time it is no different. The main winners will benefit significantly from the expense bill of the House of Representatives, according to the CBO. Meanwhile, the lowest winners will see that their domestic resources are reduced, mainly due to the reduction of the Public Benefits Program, such as Medicaid and Snap and the highest insurance premiums here.
The bill could have a great impact on immigrants and their families abroad
The bill of the Chamber advances numerous provisions aimed at immigrants and not minimizing their family citizens, from restricting access to public benefits for families in which at least one person does not take place until imposing new rates on asylum applicants. However, there is one that would have considerable much beyond the borders of the United States: a new remittance tax, payments that immigrants usually send their families in their country of origin.
The United States is the largest source of remittances worldwide. Some of the main receiving countries include the neighbors of the United States in Central and South America, countries that have produced a large number of migrants in recent years.
That is significant because remittances have explained the sums much larger than any foreign aid provided by efficient payments and the US representative to people who can spend that money on what they need for them. To migrate.
Now that the Trump administration has reduced foreign aid, remittances are more crucial than ever; However, their sums can be decreasing with new taxes.
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