IEA said that world prices of oil resumed their downward trajectory at the end of April and that, since commercial tensions affected financial and basic products and OPEC+ markets agreed on a new unraveling of production cuts
The growth of global oil consumption is showing signs of slowness driven by a deceleration in economic activity, partly in Asia directed by China and India, which has been exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts and tariff wars.
Energy monitoring agencies such as the International Energy Agency (AI) and the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) have indicated the deceleration in the growth of raw oil demand, due to moderate economic growth, partly in Asia.
The AI in its May Petroleum Market Report indicated that the signs of a “deceleration” in the global growth of oil demand may already be arising and will be tracked closely.
On the other hand, the US EIA. Uu. In its 2025 update of the short -term energy perspective (Steo) said: “We prognize the growth of crude oil consumption and other liquid fuels will slow down on the next two growing in an ash.
Slow economic growth
“After a relatively solid Q1 2025, the latest delivery data that are not OCD, especially for China and India, have been weaker than expected. Now we see a growth at a more moderate rate of 650,000 barrels per day (b/d) for the rest or 2025, resulting or 2025, b/d followed by an increase of 760,000 b/d in 2026, projected.
In spite of the recently soft patch, emerging economies remain the main promoter of growth, adding 860000 b/d this year and 1 million b/d (mb/d) next year in contrast to an accelerated decrease in the OECD countries of the surrounding OECD countries and the performance, respect, launch and d, respect, launch and d, respect, launch and respect, the thing Alta, Alta, Alta, Alta, El Alta and El Ast.
Similarly, the US EIA. In its May 2025 update of the short -term energy perspectives (Steo) said: “Although oil consumption will still grow, we will forecast that it will grow in less than 1 MB/D in 2025 and 2026, which would be three consecutive years below 1 MB/D. During the two decades before the Pandemic, the world consumption of oil grows by an average or 1.3 MB/D “.
A considerable uncertainty about world trade, manufacturing and investment occurs the downward risk in economic growth, which has a direct effect on oil consumption, he added.
The rates announced in the US business partners at the beginning of April can already decelerate the global trade of physical goods, based on preliminary output data of container ships of containers from BloombergEIA said.
Less global trade will lead to less shipping of goods in boats, as well as less truck deliveries and could also affect employment and leisure trips. All these factors weigh on the growth of oil consumption, he explained.
“The greater slowdown in the forecast in the growth of oil consumption is in Asia. Compared to our January Steo, when we forecast the growth of oil consumption in Asia to average 0.7 MB/D around 2025 and 2026, we now expect consumption to grow the average government agency.
On the other hand, the OPEC in its monthly Petroleum Market Report of May 2025 (MOMR) said that the prognosis of the global oil demand prognosis is expected to remain 2025 remain at 1.3 MB/D, AHA, without remembering the evaluation last month.
“Minor adjustments were made in the first quarter of 2025, mainly due to real data. In the OECD, Américas will be expected to lead the growth of oil demand, backed by an increase in Pacific Asia. However, it is projected that the OECD Europe shows that A-000 000.
Oil prices
IEA said that global oil prices resumed their downward trajectory at the end of April and early, since commercial tensions affected financial and basic products and OPEC+ unrolled markets of production cuts.
The bearish feeling later decreased a little after the United States reached a commercial agreement with the United Kingdom on May 8, and a 90 -day agreement with China on May 12, he added.
“However, it is expected that greater commercial uncertainty despite the world economy and, by extension, the demand for oil. Brent raw, crude oil futures fell for $ 14 per barrel in April to a minimum of four years of only $ 60 at the beginning. Writing time,” he said.
The US EIA said that Brent Crude Oil Spot Price averaged $ 68 per barrel in April 2025.
“In our forecast, the increase in oil production exceeds the annual growth of oil demand, which increases around 1 mb/d both in 2025 and 2026, which leads to the accumulation of oil inventories worldwide. We hope that the growing price will average $ and Verh $ twaraging $ 62 that fall to $ 59 next year,” he projected.
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Posted on May 19, 2025
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