Corn prices have currently dropped to a minimum of three weeks, but they are likely to increase this year in adjusted global supplies, according to analysts.
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2.5% increase this year
Currently, corn futures at the Chicago Board of Commerce (CBOT) are quoted around $ 4.70 by Bushel, below the highest plantations in the United States and the American-China commercial dispute.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), it is expected that world corn production is 1,215.09 million tons (MT) during season 2024-25 until September 1,229.76 MT in 2023-24. Consumption is projected in 1,241,78 TM, compared to 1,219.76 MT a year ago. This will leave final actions to a minimum of several years of 287.65 TM (314.33 MT).
“We have reviewed our average annual prices of 2025 for corn quoted by CBOT of second month, increasing it from $ 4.50/Bushel to $ 4.60,” said the BMI. Corn prices have earned almost 2.5 percent since the beginning of this year.
However, the World Bank, in its basic products perspective, said that corn prices are expected to fall by 2 percent in 2025 and 2026 due to the lowest prices of crude oil, which reduce the demand for ethanol and, therefore, commercial corn and superiors of the US-China.
Focus on US spring plantation.
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“The market will pay more attention to the spring planting of 2025. And despite the broader weakness seen in the corn market this year, US farmers are expected to increase the corn area for next season,” he said.
BMI said it is projected that world corn production in the 2024-25 season will reach 1,214 TM, marking an interannual decrease of 1.2 percent. This decrease has been mainly driven by an interannual decrease of 3.2 percent in the US production, which is expected to total 377.6 TM, the same as the USDA.
Departure 2025-26 in the new peak
On the other hand, the research agency said that global corn consumption in the 2024-25 season will probably increase to 1,233 TM, marking an increase of 0.8 percent year-on-year. “It is projected that this increase in demand, together with a reduction in global production, will change the market of a production surplus or 4.9 TM in 2023-24 to a substantial deficit or 18.7 TM in 2024-25,” he said.
The International Grain Council said that, according to the expectations of a bumper corn crop, grain production is projected in a new peak in 2025-26, seen 70 tm higher by 2,373 TM. With supply gains widely coincided with consumption increases, the inventories of the final season are seen without changes.
However, BMI said, the harvest of the United States 2025-26 Relieves market oppression and lid prices increases is expected to harvest. The Ethanol policy of the United States and Brazil, the weather developments and the escalation of commercial tensions are the risks for the prospects of the corn, BMI said.
Posted on May 1, 2025
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