Russia’s war on Ukraine may be entering a pivotal moment.
President Donald Trump, who Friday has been surprised and frustrated at the difficulty of achieving his promise of ending the war, wants Ukraine to give up territory in exchange for peace and essentially cede control of Crimea, the peninsula Russia first invaded in 2014.
Russia controls nearly 20% of Ukraine, much of which could be lost under the current US proposal.
The US is considering recognizing Crimea as part of Russia, even though its seizure was against international law.
All Russian President Vladimir Putin has to do, in Trump’s thinking, is stop fighting, leaving Putin richly rewarded for invading Ukraine if he is able to officially keep so much territory. If Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky won’t budge, the US has threatened to withdraw support for Ukraine.
Trump’s top emissary, Steve Witkoff, met in person with Putin Friday in Moscow.
Ukrainians have been in talks with Americans and Europeans in London, pursuing their version of a plan, in which a ceasefire would come before any discussion of ceding territory.
Trump and Zelensky will both be at the Pope’s funeral in Rome over the weekend.
Whether there will be a breakthrough for peace, the entire two-tracked process blows up, or inertia sets in and the war continues could become clear in the coming days.
Meanwhile, hostilities continue. A Russian general was killed in a car bomb near Moscow Friday. Russian strikes are still targeting Ukraine’s cities, despite Trump’s admonition to Putin on social media, “Vladimir STOP.”
“Crimea will stay with Russia,” he told Time on April 22. “And Zelensky understands that, and everybody understands that it’s been with them for a long time,” Trump said.
Russia first invaded Crimea in 2014 but despite moral outrage and sanctions, it did not face other consequences like it did later when it tried to invade the rest of Ukraine in 2022. Trump’s proposal for a cease fire seems to start with the idea that Crimea will be controlled by Russia.
Zelensky has publicly rejected the idea of ceding Crimea.
But other key Ukrainians seem to be open to the idea. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, a former champion boxer, he is not involved in negotiations but that giving up Crimea might be necessary.
“It’s not fair. But for the peace, temporary peace, maybe it can be a solution, temporary,” Klitschko said.
Russia violated international law by invading Crimea, as Zelensky has so far rejected the idea of ceding Crimea, noting that to do so would violate Ukraine’s Constitution.
If the US were to recognize Crimea as Russian, it would break America’s word multiple times over.
From Kottosová’s report:
Recognizing Crimea as part of Russia would put the Trump administration in breach of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which the US made a commitment to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and borders, in exchange for Kyiv giving up its nuclear weapons.