President Donald Trump recently implemented the greatest increase in rates with respect to the United States since the 1930s. He said that one of his objectives is to grow manufacturing in the United States.
In his announcement, the president said that the United States could be a manufacturing center again. “Empty, dead sites, factories that are falling … will be demolished, and they will have new factories built in place,” Trump said. “We are going to be a completely different country.”
Several economists have a different vision. They say that tariffs could lead to great deceleration in the economy or the scenario of sausage cases, a recession.
Some factors that indicate: the inempleal rate of the United States is 4.1%, which means that the labor supply may not be adequate for an increase in manufacturing; It will still be cheaper for many companies to pay fees than to pay US salaries; And the reconstruction of the manufacturing sector could have been for decades.
Tariff supporters say that Trump administration efforts in deregulation could accelerate investment in manufacturing. They point out a recent investment in the United States, such as Nissan deciding to maintain production in a Tennessee car plant after saying previously that it would reduce changes.
Question: Could the United States become a manufacturing center again?
Economists
Caroline Freund, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy
YEAH: But Hanty’s rates won to bring manufacturing back. Most goods are made in global supply chains and tariffs make US producers less competitive than foreign producers because the imported parts and components are more expenses. Meanwhile, Policy Whiplash is resting investment at rest. Why build now if you have no idea what will cost something next month or next year? Finally, any manufacturing resurgence of the United States will be built by robots instead of workers, so be careful what it promises.
Kelly Cunningham, San Diego Economic Research Institute
YEAH: As Dorothy learned in the “Wizard of Oz”, “you have always had the power, dear.” The manufacture of the United States is not decreasing, but continues to grow at record levels. However, manufacturing employment decreased significantly as machinery and automation processes require less workers. Intensive manufacturing in labor does not calculate well in the US. The most efficient technological processes of automation have fewer workers but more compensated.
Alan Gin, University of San Diego
No: The United States is already a manufacturing center. Industrial production in manufacturing is twice what it was 40 years ago. The reason why manufacturing is decreasing is that manufacturing employment has dropped around 5 million jobs in that period. Part of that is caused by trade and relocation of jobs, but automation is allowing less workers to produce more production. Labor costs are too high for many lower level manufacturing works (shoes, clothing, consumer electronics) to return to the US.
James Hamilton, UC San Diego
YEAH: But the president’s policies will delay us. The United States manufactures about 10% of computer cars and computer chips and 20% of world pharmaceutical products. But the automotive industry is competitive because we can import aluminum and low cost components. Silicon Valley’s success depends on the contributions of highly qualified immigrants. And pharmaceutical innovation is founded by the profits that HHS Kennedy secretary is attacking. If we want to make the United States again, we need to build on the foundations of our success.
Standard Miller, University of San Diego
No: Only 10.5% of US workers manufacture products in the current economy versus more than 40% in 1950, when we dominate the global production of tools, appliances and cars. We put production again, given enough time for tools, but we will do it with less and less work on time and more use of robotics, and possible at high costs than other countries. Global trade based on comparative advantage has advanced our standard of living and other countries, so far.
David Ely, San Diego State University
No: The companions will take years to build and modernize existing facilities with technology and automation to sacrifice products at competitive prices. Manufacturers must recruit and train workers with the skills necessary to operate modernized thesis plants. Establishing new supply chains with reliable partners who are profitable will be equally challenging. Even if these steps materialize, employment in the manufacturing sector will be lower than the peak in 1979.
Executives
Bob Rauch, Rauch & Associates
YEAH: The United States could recover its state as a manufacturing center through rehabilitation, government incentives such as the new American investment accelerator in Trump (ACT chips) and advances in automation and sustainable practices. Geopolitical changes and demand for local products consumers are also promoting this change. However, high labor costs, supply chain problems and the shortage of qualified workers remain challenges. Addressing these obstacles could lead to a rebirth of manufacturing, promoting economic growth and resilience of the supply chain.
Austin Neudecker, fabric growth
No: Tariffs and deregulation can stimulate marginal national investment, but a global manufacturing center beat the United States again. Our economy has changed to greater value roles such as design, services and assembly. Labor scarcity, high salaries and complex supply chains make large -scale reformulation not competitive. Most companies will pay tariffs and approve consumers costs instead of relocating production. The restoration of American manufacturing would take decades and radical structural changes, far beyond the scope of current policy tools.
Chris van Gorder, Health scripts
No: Not in the near future. It would take many years, probably decades, finance and build any significant amount of new manufacturing capacity. We should increase our manufacturing capacity, but that must be done strategically focusing on national security imperatives. These should include national defense, including products such as pharmaceutical products and critical medical supplies. We just need to look back in Covid and the lack of personal protective equipment as an example.
Jamie Moraga, Franklin Revere
YEAH: The United States has the potential to revive its manufacturing sector, but it will not happen overnight. This objective will require significant time and a substantial capital investment. It will also involve overcoming several challenges, including high labor and operational costs, the shortage of qualified workers, infrastructure improvements and greater global competition. The revitalization of manufacturing could create jobs, strengthen national security and boost economic growth, but success depends on overcoming challenges with a sustained commitment to long -term planning and collaboration.
Phil Blair, labor
No: The conflictive dynamics of the years would be needed to build factories in the USA. And the payment rates/compensation packages that we have expected here makes it very difficult to compete economically with the imports of manufactured goods. Tariffs will take the world economy to the recession unless leaders with a level mentality realize the errors of their forms. Empty hotels and golf courses can do it.
Gary London, London Mother Advisors
No: I don’t see why we will do it because we would. The manufacture has decreased to approximately 10% or the US GDP. And for a good reason: labor is cheap and abundant in other parts of the world. This idea of policy or return manufacture to the United States is not synchronized with the way the United States earns money. It is also in conflict with anti-immigration policy, which discourages cheap labor. If you are successfully successful, most of the national manufacture would use many robots, non -human.
Not participating this week:
Ray Major, economist
Do you have an idea for a question of the economometer? Send me an email to phillip.molnar@sduniTribrono.com. Follow me in the threads: @phillip020
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